Wide Receiver PPR Rankings

Quick update on the Ceiling stat. The Ceiling has an 84 % chance of not being reached but a 16 % chance to being outscored. So just because the Ceiling does not literally mean the highest the player can score but the statistically most likely outcome.

With these new PPR rankings I have combined their average Standard Scoring production while calculating a Ceiling and a Floor for the Receptions. The Reception Ceiling and Floor has then been added to the Standard Scoring average to arrive at two different stats. All the numbers are based of the last three years and if the players has not played that long it is from all his games in the league. The sorting is based of the Floor.

Nice Tables (5)

 

I am a little surprised seeing TY and Fitzgerald this low on the PPR rankings. I have not focused on PPR earlier but just they way other analysts talk I would have thought their numbers supported a higher ranking. They at least surpass players with more of big play aura around them such as Dez Bryant and Brandin Cooks.

Some of my absolute favorite players to focus on this year is in this group of 17-32. Especially Pierre Garcon and Michael Crabtree. They are in a good spot to land a top 30 WR finish while you only have to pay a 40 or later pick for them.

Sterling Shepard would have received a ton of hype from me had not Brandon Marshall been signed. I have been trying to get more knowledge on who might be the nr.2 receiver in New York but have not landed on any consensus. We have two camps right now, 1. Eli likes big targets and Marshall is great for that and 2. Marshall was terrible even with all the targets he got last year. If we can make an informed decision on this before we start drafting for real I will consider both of them as a flex player.

Players of Concern: Cooks, new team we don’t fully know his role in New England. Boldin, of course he is a massive concern as a free agent, I did not want to fully remove him though.

Nice Tables (6)

And again the top 3 is nothing new for anyone. The numbers these three players have put up over the last three years are just too good to move them. I am not in any way putting the three of them at the top to be in-line with the consensus it is all about the numbers.

If you watched my Saints Video from last Friday you know I believe that Michael Thomas will have a second year slump due to the change in his role. Seeing him this high on the PPR rankings restores some of my confidence. It is also important to note that the Rankings and Score Projections are best suited to be viewed together and not as separate entities. If a player has a high Score Projection but say a low one game Floor, it is likely that the player’s role has changed or there has been a change in Quarterback or play-calling.

I think I was one of the more outspoken analysts against drafting DeAndre Hopkins last year and I think I might need to change my attitude somewhat when it comes to him and PPR. His current PPR ADP is right now 12 and I have him ranked as the 13th best PPR Wide Receiver. So people are valuing him almost exactly how I would as well. This is not great for finding value but we at least know that his numbers support that high of a pick this year.

I was on the Demaryius Thomas Hype Train before this but I might even be the driver of the train now. PPR ADP as Wide Receiver 14 right now with top 10 value. That is not the largest of difference but it is still valuable enough for me to really be high on him. DT is together with Lamar Miller my favorite under the radar players this year. The value you can get from these players for the draft capital you spend is amazing.

Players of Concern: Jeffery, changing team and coming back from a suspension. I like him but I will be careful with not placing too many eggs in his basket. Allen, is he back for real or will he play five games and be gone for the rest of the season? We also have a loaded pass catching group in LA so if you slip up there is plenty of guys to take your place.

 

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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD


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