For everyone that has watched my latest Score Projection Video on the YouTube channel I want to apologize for the lack of commentary. I had a cold that severely impaired my ability to speak for long periods of time so I decided to post the Video as it was. I hope you still found it interesting and that you had no problem understanding the numbers. I always try to stay transparent with my rankings and projections so you know how I arrive at my numbers so if you have any questions about the Chargers video or any of my numbers for that matter, write a comment below or ask me on twitter @csdfantasy and I will be happy to further discuss my algorithms and thought process.
If you are unfamiliar with my Ceiling stat but would like to learn more, click Here! Let’s dig in!
Before we really get into the situation. If you are one of the people who would spend the 20th overall pick on a QB, please contact JJ Zachariason @LateRoundQB and talk to him cause I think you might need his help.
If you have read my previous Ceiling posts you know that I value the Floor higher when it comes to the early rounds. For Quarterbacks it is a little bit different, I like to pick them later on but I still value the Floor higher than Ceiling. I want a stable QB that will give me a good amount of points each week. I usually don’t expect my Quarterback to win me more than 1 week over the whole season but never lose me a game. The Ceiling number however is extremely important when playing DFS or when you are looking for bye week QB.
If you have a different approach than me and would like to have a Quarterback that will definitely win you a couple of games I have some suggestions for you. First of, I know Ben has a lower ADP than Cousins but I will never draft Ben due to his Home/Away disparity, over the season that is just way to unstable for me. My guy is instead Cousins, 82nd pick overall for a guy that can score around 26 points with a 16 % chance of scoring even higher than that. Compare that to Ryan who goes 30 picks ahead but still has a lower Ceiling. Ryan’s Ceiling is of course impacted both by his previously weaker years but also last season. That means that his Ceiling before last year was so low that an MVP season could not even raise it higher than 10th on my list.
The next guy is Tyrod Taylor, and for the record, I really hope that T-Mobile as a nickname does not stick! Look at his Ceiling with that ADP, and to add to that, he ranks 11th on the Floor rankings. He goes in the 12th round (10 team league) while being close to a top 10 QB. I guess getting a guy outside the top 10 isn’t optimal for a 10 team league but with the price you are paying and his potential I feel like he is a guy that I will be drafting, at least in deeper leagues.
The scariest player to draft for me is Matt Ryan. Coming off that Super Bowl loss, new OC, have not been consistent before and too high ADP. I had Ryan as my second guy after Brees last year due to Ryan’s Floor compared to his ADP last year when it all made sense. Now it feels like the only way to go is down for him. It was the same with Cam last year. I suggest caution when drafting Ryan or any QB before round 7-8 for that matter.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD