Running Back Draft Value

Welcome to the first Position Value Post. With the Rankings, Market Share’s and Score Projections done we are moving into the draft season. Over the next couple of weeks I will present the best value depending on what round a player is drafted in for Running Backs, Wide Receivers and Quarterbacks and finish up with one combined “Best Pick Per Round” post.

The purpose behind these posts are to identify the greatest value you can get from each position depending on the round. For instance, you are looking for a Running Back in the first round and you want the back to give you the highest Floor. So for all Running Back drafted in the first round Ezekiel Elliott has the highest Floor. You will see that some players that have a later round pick will have a higher Floor than someone drafted earlier. This is the whole point, you want to know where you most likely have to draft somebody and the value you will get from him if drafted. I will talk more about this after showing you the charts. Let’s dig in!

 

To further explain what I am trying to showcase here let’s use an example. I have drafted three Wide Receivers in the first four rounds and I am now looking for a Running Back in the fifth. With the players I have drafted so far I am really looking for a back that can provide me with a solid Floor and I am not really looking for a boom or bust. The highest Floor in round 5 belongs to Isaiah Crowell with 2.2 points. With the knowledge that Spencer Ware most likely won’t be drafted for another round and he has a 4.0 Floor I am willing to skip Crowell and wait another round for my Running Back. This is the whole point of these posts, knowing more about what players provide the best value in each round, I am not saying this to be value based drafting but something in those lines. I probably need a catchy name for this so if anyone has an idea please let me know on twitter @qalled.

If you have read any of my previous rankings you know that I usually draft players with high Floors in the earlier rounds and start looking at Ceilings after round 6-7 and for Running Backs I feel like we have some great names with a lot of uncertainty after round 6. First, I can’t believe that C.J. Anderson is going as late as the 7th round. With a questionable Jamaal Charles and Devontae Booker that did not impress last year I feel like if I need or want a Running Back in round 7 he will be my guy if he’s still there of course.

After him we have the old guard. I have not evaluated Adrian Peterson enough to decide if he’s worth an 8 round pick but when we get more news out of Saints training camp we can perhaps make a more informed decision. I much rather draft Blount in the 9th with what we saw of him last year or actually take a flyer on Paul Perkins seeing as he most likely will have a decent workload in New York.

Lastly, the 10th round is way too early for me to draft Forte but if I can get the best value Running Back in the 10th round in round 12, I am all in on taking a shot!

It will be very interesting to see how the Running Backs rank against the Wide Receivers two weeks from now in the “Best Pick Per Round” post. Until then I hope you enjoy my new YouTube Series that start on Friday, “CSD Head-2-Head” where I look at the stats and projections of two players with similar ADP and evaluate who is the best statistical pick. This Friday I am looking at A.J. Green vs. Michael Thomas.

Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!imageedit_1_9253545623

The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD

photo credit: bmward_2000 Ezekiel Elliott via photopin (license)


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