Wide Receiver Draft Value

Last Position Value post now before we dig into the combined one on Monday and some more analytical draft recap content before we get into the season and all that it has to offer. Today we’re looking at what feels like the most hyped and most difficult position to project, Wide Receivers. There are going to be some takes in this post with some players that I have hyped during this off-season and a guy that I am just waking up on. Don’t miss the next episode of CSD Head-2-Head on Friday, the episode will look at Todd Gurley vs. Lamar Miller. I am really excited about trying the Head-2-Head format on some Running Backs.

The purpose behind these posts are to identify the greatest value you can get from each position depending on the round. For instance, you are looking for a Wide Receiver in the first round and you want the back to give you the highest Floor. So for all Wide Receivers drafted in the first round Antonio Brown has the highest Floor. You will see that some players that have a later round pick will have a higher Floor than someone drafted earlier. This is the whole point, you want to know where you most likely have to draft somebody and the value you will get from him if drafted. Let’s dig in!

 

 

Ok, I know I sound like a broken record but I will say it again. I am looking to the Floor in the earlier rounds to get the safest guys early and secure my weekly floor, then I look to the Ceiling later on to find upside and value. So if I decide to go Wide Receiver in the first 3-5 rounds I will look to get Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson and so on. I am of course not locked to this if it happens that I have to change something I can come back to the Floor guys later on but this is my original draft plan. Around round 8 is where I really start valuing the Ceiling more and more.

Looking at the players, the guy I have been hyping all off-season has been Emmanuel Sanders. Getting a guy with a higher Ceiling and higher Floor than the best guy in the round ahead of him is crazy. I cannot wait to get Sanders in round 6 and see him performing as a Top 40 pick. I could see myself reaching on him a little bit and getting him late 5th just to be sure but I usually don’t reach so that depends on my draft position.

Allen Robinson is the second player that catches my eye. I love seeing a player have the highest Ceiling and highest Floor in one round. I would not mind at all getting Running Backs in rounds 1-2, then seeing what I get in round 3-4 to then fill the roster with Allen Robinson and Emmanuel Sanders in round 5 and 6. Also important to note, I talked about the ability to skip a position in the Running Back Value post. I was saying that if the guy in the next round is better than the round you are currently in you can wait for the next and pick the next guy. The other way to act here is to try to get both, knowing the ADP of both Robinson and Sanders shows us that even if I rank Sanders higher I need to take Robinson one round ahead of him if I want both.

Last two guys I would like you to take a look at are Kelvin Benjamin and Tyrell Williams. If you are looking for a Wide Receiver in round 8 and 9 why not take a shot and Benjamin and hope that we have some positive regression coming his way this year? I would not mind having him as my third Wide Receiver in a Standard Scoring league where you start two Receivers and one Flex. I of course value Tyrell Williams even higher than Benjamin! With the news that Mike Williams is having some injury issues and with Keenan Allen’s history, spending a pick after round 12 to get him is extreme value. How often do you expect to have the chance to get a WR2 that late in a draft? I am not particularly high on Rivers this year but that is more due to the fact that people always seem to overvalue him and I will not view him as a Top Five Quarterback, but, I am high on at least two of the Chargers pass catchers.

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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD

photo credit: Brook-Ward Antonio vs. DJ via photopin (license)


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