The final off-season statistics driven post is here! Today I’m combining Running Backs, Wide Receiver and Tight Ends to find the best value in each round. I have split it up in such a way that you will see my draft process more easily. The first 6 rounds have the highest Floor players while round 7-16 are filled with the players with the highest Ceiling. The spots will of course be dominated by Running Backs and Wide Receivers but that does not matter that much as long as you find the best value!
First off I would like to say that Ezekiel Elliott actually has the highest Floor in round one but with the suspension I felt it best to show the second best in Le’Veon Bell there instead. But what all this means is that if I get to pick first in each round who would I pick if I did not take, age, health, change of team or coach or anything like that into consideration, I would pick the guy with the highest floor in the first six rounds and then start picking Ceiling guys after that (Quarterback and Kicker are exceptions).
Todd Gurley and Emmanuel Sanders are players I have been cheering for this entire off-season and I am really happy to see that they are the best picks in their respective rounds. I tried to get both in a draft I had the other day but was unfortunately 1-2 picks to far away each time. Murray and Gore (especially Gore) are ageing Running Backs that still has value, I would not mind drafting Murray in the second while I would hesitate to draft Gore in the third, the truth will be convenient eventually. This is probably the last year that I am feeling confident in drafting Murray this high though but I like that he’s at least not a first round pick.
OK this was a little bit unexpected but seeing three players with question marks being the first three guys is somewhat disappointing. I don’t alter the numbers in any way as I stick to the formula that has been used for the rankings earlier in the season but I will most likely not draft AP, Blount or Forte before round ten. I would actually rather draft Jamaal Charles in the 13th than the others for that value. But these players are players that warrants a second look, you will have to evaluate if you would like to take a shot at an older proven guy or a rookie with unknown upside and downside.
I would like to step away from how I usually do it and come with an argument for why you should draft Mixon. I know people are drafting Mixon already due to his own skill and ability but I have a different viewpoint. If the two previous Running Backs in Cincinnati are the best Ceiling picks in rounds twelve and 16 Mixon should at least reach roughly the same Ceiling. Then you have to make your own evaluating about what you believe his one game Floor will be and where you are willing to draft him. With the knowledge of what an average Running Back in Cincinnati can accomplish I am easily willing to spend a third round pick on Mixon.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD