We have finally reached the season! I know everyone is as excited as I am about football but I hope y’all are as excited as I am about the first Score Projection and Risk Analysis post of the season. For all the new readers, the Score Projection and Risk Analysis series is a series that will be posted every Thursday from now on until the end of the season. This posts are all about Projecting the players weekly scoring and looking at how big the risk is for a certain amount of points. Until we reach Week 5 Rookies will not have their own Projections. During Week 1 the Projections are also a little different but I will talk more about that later.
Score Projection: The Score Projection this year will add to the mathematical formula, Home/Away stats, above 0.500/below 0.500 and AFC/NFC. This means that the accuracy will increase from last year for the Weekly Projections. The Yearly Projections use a different formula that I have previously discussed. Week 1 however is a little bit different, I have put a Standard Projection for all players for this week and chose to only look at the probability of scoring this. This is a test to see how people feel about having the same Score Projection and then deciding solely based on the probability of the player scoring that point or below.
Risk Analysis: I have a new formula for calculating risk so the probability is more accurate than last year. It is based on the Poisson Distribution and is Cumulative. That means that the probability for Player X to score 10 fantasy points can be 15% and that means that the probability of scoring 10 or under 10 is 15 %. Consequently that means that Player X has a 85% probability of scoring above 10 (10.1 to infinity). Let’s dig in!
Top Players Week 1
Each week I will provide you with Score Projections and Risk Analysis for all players that I have in my database and you can find a document with all those numbers below. To make this post a little bit more manageable though, I will provide a shorter list of either the players with the highest Score Projection, best Probability or some Sleeper picks. For Week 1 I decided to look at the ten players with the best Probability.
To clarify more on what I was talking about earlier in this post let’s look at David Johnson. I gave him, as a Running Back a Week 1 Score Projection of 10FTPs. With Johnson’s historical data the probability of him scoring 10FTPs or below that is 8.8%. As said before, that means that he has a 91.2% chance of scoring above 10FTPs. Since this post is a little long I will not go deeper into the ten players but that will be a segment moving forward on each Thursday.
Press ctrl+f to search for a player. You can also tweet me @csdfantasy for individual players risk or score projection.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD