Hello and welcome to the first Statistics Analysis post of the season! The post will look at the numbers I provided heading into that week and look at how accurate the Projections, Floors and Ceilings were that week. To me this is an extremely important aspect of CSD Fantasy. I started this to have a transparent website where the reader know why I project certain numbers and to know how I actually fair.
The slight difference this week and all the way to Week 4 is that I do not provide any numbers based on the current season until then. So for now I am reviewing the Yearly Projections and Probabilities from last Thursday.
I will present the statistics for all projections and probabilities and showcase five players I was right about and five a was wrong about. Let’s dig in!
Right Week 1
No big surprises here, I looked at the players with the lowest probability of scoring the projection and below so no big surprises that fantasy studs would overwhelm this list. This is also a sign that the standard projection I gave to each player for Week 1 was to low for these players. For Week 2 I will present all the players projection in the light of 50 % probability instead to better showcase their abilities and what they are most likely to produce.
Wrong Week 1
This is the more interesting list. These are players my numbers had totally wrong. This is something I want you to take with you from this post. I always admit when I steer you wrong or provide information that won’t help you win and these five players should have been started but my probabilities told you that it is almost impossible for them to score over the projection. I actually started Tyreek Hill, but that was due to the bye weeks for Tampa and Miami so I got lucky.
I made 228 Projections with Probabilities for Week 1.
I measure with 30 % accuracy, meaning if a player scored under his projection but the probability was 30 % or above I failed or if a player had 70 % probability but scored above his projection I also failed.
Out of the 228 Projection and Probabilities I had 155 Correct and 73 Incorrect. That means that 68 % of all my numbers I provided gave you a good opportunity to plan your fantasy lineup in Week 1.
Last year I had a 74 % hit rate on my projections so hopefully we can get it back up there for Week 2!
Happy to announce CSD Fantasy’s first partner in STEPUP Apparel. Perfect for your rec-league team, for standing out while you workout or as a fun gift.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD