If you are just getting ready for Week 2 you have come to the right place. As I do every Thursday here is the Score Projection and Risk Analysis for all the players I have in my database. The database will continue to grow as the season goes on with Rookies being added for Week 5. Some kinks still needs to be ironed out for the Projections this early on in the season but the Probabilities are 100% good to good. I am saying this because Adrian Peterson has a 17 FTPs Projection but a 100% probability of Scoring that or below. The below part is extremely important to keep in mind. Below is a description of the Projections and Probablities so for y’all that know them by now scroll down to my Head-2-Head Video with Jarvis Landry vs. Keenan Allen for a warm up before you set your lineup. Quick side note, the Projections and Probablities had a 68% accuracry in Week 1, let’s get it up to 74% again. Let’s dig in!
Score Projection: The Score Projection this year will add to the mathematical formula, Home/Away stats, above 0.500/below 0.500 and AFC/NFC. This means that the accuracy will increase from last year for the Weekly Projections. The Yearly Projections use a different formula that I have previously discussed. Week 1 however is a little bit different, I have put a Standard Projection for all players for this week and chose to only look at the probability of scoring this. This is a test to see how people feel about having the same Score Projection and then deciding solely based on the probability of the player scoring that point or below.
Risk Analysis: I have a new formula for calculating risk so the probability is more accurate than last year. It is based on the Poisson Distribution and is Cumulative. That means that the probability for Player X to score 10 fantasy points can be 15% and that means that the probability of scoring 10 or under 10 is 15 %. Consequently that means that Player X has a 85% probability of scoring above 10 (10.1 to infinity).
These are the five players I have chosen to focus on this week. The reason for this is that I find their Week 2 Projection in combination with the probability very intriguing.
Looking at the Rams, they have a really high Projection but the probability of scoring it or below is very high so the likelihood of them reaching the Projection is not very high. That is no problem, just that their numbers from Week 1 in combination with stats from last year and their opponent in Week 2 (The Redskins at Home) puts them in a good spot.
Jeremy Maclin is in the same situation as the Rams. He has a high Projection due to playing against the Browns at home but there are stills risks there with the Probability being very high. Terrance West is almost there too but not entirely. West has a lower Projection with a lower Probability. That means that there is a 36.1% chance that he will score above 12 points in Week 2, a terrific pick in case you just had DJ injured or just want points.
Dan Bailey is a safe pick for me in Week 2. He is projected to score 7.5 FTPs in Week 2 with 20.1% Probability. So the chance of him scoring above that is 70.9%. If I am the Dan Bailey owner I feel good in my kicker providing me a good amount of points without me worrying about the position.
Rishard Matthews has a decent Projection with a pretty high Probability but I still like him. In comparison I have Davante Adams Projected at 6.2 points with 60.8% Probability of Scoring the Projection or below. So this is a decision you have to make, pick the player with the Higher Projection but with more Risk or the player with Lower Projection but less Risk. This is not always the case but these two players lined up pretty great for this example.
Press ctrl+f to search for a player. You can also tweet me @csdfantasy for individual players risk or score projection.
If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, tweet me @csdfantasy with a picture or list of your team and I will make sure you have it before kickoff on Sunday.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD