Great response from last week’s Statistics Analysis so I have been really excited about doing this one. However, my projections and my teams had one of my worst fantasy weeks of all time. I have never been this close to 50/50 before in my analytics career and I am deeply sorry for everyone that trust my projections for lineup help and I promise you that it will revert back to the mean next week, otherwise I will find out a way to make it up to y’all!
I want to make a quick note before we start. While the Projections might not have been the most accurate this week, It is important to remember that I provide the Probability and Risk for all players so you keep that in mind. While a Projection might be wrong the Probability and Risk should tell you how likely the Projection is to be correct. Let’s dig in!
Right Week 2
Well even if I had the worst projection week of all time, I got to be a little bit happy with how these five turned out. One trend this week looking at all of the projections and comparing to the actual score was that I was more right on Quarterbacks and Kickers compared to a lot of other positions while DSTs where far behind the others. The lack of offense and the great defense from a lot of teams are impacting the projections more than I would have hoped but I am confident in my algorithm and expecting an adjustment for next week.
Wrong Week 2
With the video on Sanders above you can tell that I am high on him, and I would like to add that I of course would prefer Sanders over Diggs with Bradford being out. I have been hyping the Broncos receivers all summer long but I never thought Sanders would score this high in Week 2. Perriman is really disappointing and so is Jordan Howard but I expect them to get a few more points next week and the Probabilities will adjust to showcase their Risk more.
I made 208 Projections with Probabilities for Week 2.
I measure with 30 % accuracy, meaning if a player scored under his projection but the probability was 30 % or above I failed or if a player had 70 % probability but scored above his projection I also failed.
Out of the 208 Projection and Probabilities I had 111 Correct and 97 Incorrect. That means that 54 % of all my numbers I provided gave you a good opportunity to plan your fantasy lineup in Week 2.
Last week I had a 68 % hit rate on my projections so hopefully we can get it back up there for Week 3!
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD