Week 2 Statistics Analysis

Great response from last week’s Statistics Analysis so I have been really excited about doing this one. However, my projections and my teams had one of my worst fantasy weeks of all time. I have never been this close to 50/50 before in my analytics career and I am deeply sorry for everyone that trust my projections for lineup help and I promise you that it will revert back to the mean next week, otherwise I will find out a way to make it up to y’all!

I want to make a quick note before we start. While the Projections might not have been the most accurate this week,  It is important to remember that I provide the Probability and Risk for all players so you keep that in mind. While a Projection might be wrong the Probability and Risk should tell you how likely the Projection is to be correct. Let’s dig in!

Right Week 2

Right Week 2

Well even if I had the worst projection week of all time, I got to be a little bit happy with how these five turned out. One trend this week looking at all of the projections and comparing to the actual score was that I was more right on Quarterbacks and Kickers compared to a lot of other positions while DSTs where far behind the others. The lack of offense and the great defense from a lot of teams are impacting the projections more than I would have hoped but I am confident in my algorithm and expecting an adjustment for next week.

Wrong Week 2

Wrong Week 2

With the video on Sanders above you can tell that I am high on him, and I would like to add that I of course would prefer Sanders over Diggs with Bradford being out. I have been hyping the Broncos receivers all summer long but I never thought Sanders would score this high in Week 2. Perriman is really disappointing and so is Jordan Howard but I expect them to get a few more points next week and the Probabilities will adjust to showcase their Risk more.

Statistical Summary

I made 208 Projections with Probabilities for Week 2.

I measure with 30 % accuracy, meaning if a player scored under his projection but the probability was 30 % or above I failed or if a player had 70 %  probability but scored above his projection I also failed.

Out of the 208 Projection and Probabilities I had 111 Correct and 97 Incorrect. That means that 54 % of all my numbers I provided gave you a good opportunity to plan your fantasy lineup in Week 2.

Last week I had a 68 % hit rate on my projections so hopefully we can get it back up there for Week 3!

Don’t forget to check out CSD Fantasy’s first partner in STEPUP Apparel. Perfect for your rec-league team, for standing out while you workout or as a fun gift.

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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD

photo credit: Keith Allison Matt Jones via photopin (license)


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