Hello Fantasy Faithfulls, we are back on track. After a disastrous Week 2 the Projections are back to producing accurate numbers for everyone. I was very upset with how my numbers performed last week so I am very excited about today’s post with a major bounce back, I project even more accurate projections in Week 4 so be sure to read the Score Projection and Risk Analysis on Thursday.
And as I mentioned last week, while the projection might be wrong the Risk and Probability should provide you with an indication on how likely the Projection is. Let’s dig in!
Right Week 3
So I the Risk was off on Sanu but the Projection is so close that I had to but him on here anyway. I am very glad to see that there is only one Kicker and one DST again this week. I don’t like it when a position group dominates a category cause that would indicate that there is something wrong with the Projections for the other positions. For instance, last week there was three Quarterbacks on the Right list and this week there are none, that is a good thing, I like the change in positions and players.
Wrong Week 2
Speaking of different positions and players, second week in a row with a Ravens player on here and three tight ends! I am going to take a wild guess and say it would have been four if I would have created a Projection for Marcedes Lewis. Davis’ Projection was of course too low considering that Jordan Reed was out but that is not something that I am too worried about. People know who is injured and I simply provide numbers that you can expect.
I made 305 Projections with Probabilities for Week 3.
I measure with 30 % accuracy, meaning if a player scored under his projection but the probability was 30 % or above I failed or if a player had 70 % probability but scored above his projection I also failed.
Out of the 305 Projection and Probabilities I had 209 Correct and 96 Incorrect. That means that 69 % of all my numbers I provided gave you a good opportunity to plan your fantasy lineup in Week 3.
Last week I had a 54 % hit rate on my Projections so hopefully we can stay way above that again Week 4!
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD