Score Projection and Risk Analysis W4

Hello Fantasy Faithfulls, Week 4 is rapidly approaching and that ,means that Rookies are now getting their own Score Projection and Risks. The rookie formula is a little different from the other players for this week however. This is due to the small sample size, so please take the rookie numbers with a pinch of salt. I will have three rookies featured below in my weekly highlight so I will talk more about this later.

Quick reminder that I changed the terminology last week so if you need to familiar yourself with it please read the descriptions below. Let’s dig in!

Score Projection: The Score Projection this year have added to the mathematical formula, Home/Away stats, above 0.500/below 0.500, AFC/NFC and opponents play trends. This means that the accuracy will increase from last year for the Weekly Projections. The Yearly Projections use a different formula that I have previously discussed.

Risk Analysis: I have a new formula for calculating the probability and risk which makes them more accurate than last year. It is based on Poisson Distribution and is Cumulative. Example: The Risk for Player X to score 10 fantasy points is 15 % and that means that the chance of scoring 10 FTPs or under 10 FTPs is 15 %. Consequently that means that Player X has a 85% Probability of scoring above 10 FTPs (10.1 to infinity).


Score Projection Week 4

These are the five players I have chosen to highlight this week. The reason for this is that they are the five players with the lowest Risk according to my formula. The Risk as stated above is the Risk of not reaching the Score Projection.

I would never have guessed that after three weeks Kareem Hunt would be the player with the least amount of Risk to reach his Projection and that his Projection would be over 10 FTPs at that. I am very excited about Hunt as I am guessing everyone is for this week and also going forward.

Again I am surprised, Alex Smith is the second guy on the list of safest players to start in Week 4. Salvatore Stefanile (@2QBFFB) who has helped this site a lot with shootouts and retweets loves to tweet about Alex Smith in a very funny way so having him this highly ranked I hope is something that will bring him joy!

The two rookie Tight Ends do not have the double-digit Projections as the other players but it is still worth noting that they have very low risk of not reaching this Projection. I lot of players in this week have lower Projections but still not this low Risk.

Kirk Cousins did maybe not have the flying start that we would have hoped for or projected but he has sneakily been very stable. He has had double-digit points in all three games with the latest being 26. That impacts my formula in a way that gets his Risk down very low but with a modest Projection. Being that he has not scored too high my formula does not expect him to score massively but it knows that we can start to expect him to at least be decent so it Projects lower and let us know that this will most likely be outperformed.

For All Week 4 Score Projections and Probabilities Click Here!

Press ctrl+f to search for a player. You can also tweet me @csdfantasy for individual players risk or score projection. New thing this week is a sorting option for you so I hope that will add value to everyone!

If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, tweet me @csdfantasy with a picture or list of your team and I will make sure you have it before kickoff on Sunday.

Check out CSD Fantasy’s first partner in STEPUP Apparel. Perfect for your rec-league team, for standing out while you workout or as a fun gift.

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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD


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