Hello Fantasy Faithfulls, what a week. My fantasy teams are falling apart due to injuries to key players but I am not feeling bad about it because the Projection Accuracy is now back to what it was last year with 77 % correct Projections in Week 4! I have been feeling like I let you down when the numbers did not produce in Week 2 so I am extremely satisfied that we are now back to where I want the numbers to be.
Ok, after me hyping myself a little bit let’s get back to business. Today i will skip the 5 Rights and 5 Wrongs to focus on waivers. If this is something you prefer please let me know in the comments or on twitter (@csdfantasy) or I will go back to the old ways. Let’s dig in!
These are my highest projected players going forward with lower than 50 % ownership on NFL.com. I elected to leave Quarterbacks out of this list due to the fact that I did not want them to take all the spots since their scoring is usually higher.
As I wrote above my teams are having a ton of injury issues with Murray, Carson, Julio, David Johnson, Davante Adams, and Melvin Gordon and Jay Ajayi to a certain extent. The players I will look to secure today are Jamaal Charles for a long-term stash and of Alvin Kamara. The reason I am not looking to pick up Giovani Bernard or Buck Allen is that I still don’t trust the Cincinnati backfield and the Ravens offense what so ever. I feel much more comfortable with the Saints and Broncos.
Kamara has a bye week so I am not looking for him in the leagues where I need help Now, there is Allen and Gio better options, even though I am not super excited.
I made 418 Projections with Probabilities for Week 4.
I measure with 30 % accuracy, meaning if a player scored under his projection but the probability was 30 % or above I failed or if a player had 70 % probability but scored above his projection I also failed.
Out of the 305 Projection and Probabilities I had 323 Correct and 95 Incorrect. That means that 77 % of all the numbers I provided gave you a good opportunity to plan your fantasy lineup in Week 4.
Last week I had a 69 % hit rate on my Projections so we have had a positive trend going for two weeks in a row!
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD