Waivers & Week 5 Statistics Analysis

Hello Fantasy Faithfulls, the first Bye week has come and gone and with that also my best Projection week of all time,  92.3% of all Projections and Probabilities was right this week so if you have the time please scroll down to the end of this post to get read the full breakdown. I view my transparency about the Projection as a cornerstone of CSD Fantasy so I get extremely hyped when they are giving y’all better opportunities now in Week 5 compared to Week 1!

Tomorrow I will have a Video breakdown of the Top 5 Fantasy Receivers so far this season, I will analyze their numbers, field patters and ROS so be sure to keep an eye out for that. On Thursday we have the Score Projection & Risk Analysis as usual and on Friday/Saturday Head-2-Head with Doug Martin vs. LeGarrette Blount. Let’s dig in!

 

Waivers into week 6

These are my highest projected players going into Week 6 forward with lower than 70 % ownership on NFL.com. I elected to leave most Quarterbacks out of this list due to the fact that I did not want them to take all the spots since their scoring is usually higher. However, I did include the highest Projected one of them so you at least know who I value the most.

I picked up Funchess last week thanks to him topping my waiver priority but he is still not owned in half of all NFL.com leagues so there is still time to pick him up when Baldwin, Dez and A.J. Green goes on Bye this week.

Aaron Jones is a perfect pickup to replace Zeke and McCoy and perhaps even long-term, even though I don’t count a good game vs. the Cowboys run defense as a given that he will continue to be this good.

Statistical Summary

I made 418 Projections with Probabilities for Week 5.

I measure with 30 % accuracy, meaning if a player scored under his projection but the probability was 30 % or above I failed or if a player had 70 %  probability but scored above his projection I also failed.

Out of the 470 Projections and Probabilities I had 348 Correct and 36 Incorrect. That means that 92.3 % of all the numbers I provided gave you a Great opportunity to plan your fantasy line in Week 5.

Last week I had a 77 % hit rate on my Projections so we have had a positive trend going for three weeks in a row, I don’t think I gave improve much more on 92.3 % but if the numbers can stay over 80 % again we will start moving up the standings in our fantasy leagues.

Don’t forget to check out CSD Fantasy’s first partner in STEPUP Apparel. Perfect for your rec-league team, for standing out while you workout or as a fun gift.

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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD

 


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