Score Projection and Risk Analysis W6

Hello Fantasy Faithfulls, today I am keeping the introductory part of the post a little shorter than usual. The projections had a great accuracy level (92.3%) last week and I want to get into them as fast as possible. So I thought I would just highlight some other content I provide. Yesterday I broke down how the Top 5 Wide Receivers got there, I looked at their target distribution, Floor, Ceiling, Standard Deviation and more, check it out Right Here! On Saturday I am comparing LeGarrette Blount and Doug Martin in the Head-2-Head Series. If you have two players you would like to be featured, hit me up on twitter or comment on one of the YouTube Videos. Let’s dig in!

 

week 6 projections

These are the five players I have chosen to highlight this week. The reason for this is that they are the Top 5 highest projected Wide Receivers for Week 6 and I thought would be nice since the Top 5 Wednesday Video was about Receivers.

Watson and Fuller has been great for Fantasy the last two weeks and against the Browns at home I expect more of the same. Fuller is my highest Projected Receiver going into Week 6. He has only 65 % Risk which is incredible for a Projection this high. If I own Fuller I am starting him!

Antonio Brown is of course a must start every week but I could not leave him out of the list just because of that. What is interesting about Brown is in relation to the other four players. He has the second highest Projection with almost 3 FTPs more than the third guy. But his Risk is around the same as the other three. So even with a much higher Projection he still has roughly the same Risk of not reaching is as non-elite players.

Seeing Larry Fitzgerald on this list gets me going! He is maybe my favorite person in the NFL, not player, Person. I heard him talking one time and he said that he does everything he can to show his kids what it means to be a man in this world and I think that is something that is needed right now. You can’t expect kids to grow up and become good people if you don’t show them how. Enough with my world views and onto the next guy.

With Nuk I got two Texans Receivers on my Top 5 list which I think nobody would have predicted before the season, #TomSavageIsReal? Again as with Fuller, playing against the Browns at home is a great opportunity for a clicking offense to continue to roll.

Diggs has the lowest Projection of the five but has still almost as high Risk as Antonio Brown. I would be inclined to sit Diggs if I had someone on my team with a 12 FTP Projection with 60 % Risk. You always have to weigh the Projection against the Probability of outscoring it and the Risk of not reaching it. So if the Projection is high enough I can start a player with high Risk because of the chance he will get at least close to it, but when the Projection is not high enough but the Risk is still there, I will look elsewhere for a better combo.

For All Week 6 Score Projections and Probabilities Click Here!

Press ctrl+f to search for a player. You can also tweet me @csdfantasy for individual players risk or score projection. Don’t forget that you can sort based on first name, Projection, Probability of outscoring the Projection and Risk of not reaching the Projection.

If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, tweet me @csdfantasy with a picture or list of your team and I will make sure you have it before kickoff on Sunday.

Check out CSD Fantasy’s first partner in STEPUP Apparel. Perfect for your rec-league team, for standing out while you workout or as a fun gift.

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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD


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