ROS WR Rankings & W8 Analysis

Hello Fantasy Faithfulls, not the most fun weekend of football but we got some great fantasy situations out of it! I am running a little bit short on time today due to Europe turning our clocks back one hour last Saturday so I will keep this post a little shorter due to the time constraints. Let’s dig in!

 

ROS Ceiling Rankings

WR ROS 2

The Ceiling is the most amount of points I can expect a player to have on a given week.

If anyone would have told me that two Texans Receivers and a Vikings Receiver would have the highest one game Ceiling after eight weeks I would have questioned that persons sanity. But the situation is that the two Texans are the two Receivers who have the highest one game potential right now. This means that at 86 % Risk they have the highest Score Projection. All these Ceilings have the 86 % Risk so it is easy to compare the players and evaluate if their Projection at 86 % Risk is worth playing them vs. a Player that has a higher Floor.

ROS Floor Rankings

WR ROS

The floor is the least amount of points I expect from a player when he has his worst game. There is only a 16 % chance that he won’t reach this number, so I am fairly sure to get this amount of points ever week.

This is the craziest thing I have seen this year! Fuller and Hopkins top both the Ceiling and the Floor list. So they are not only the two players with the highest Projection at 86 % Risk they are also the players with the highest Projection with 16 % Risk. Diggs however is not on the list at all so while he can give you that great day he also has the potential to give you squat. Antonio Brown is of course still high on both lists even without being a touchdown machine.

Interesting on this list is that Dez Bryant who in previous posts usually ranks pretty low on the Floor lists but high on Ceiling lists is unranked up top while being top 5 in the Floor. He has changed from being extremely volatile to being more reliable with less upside.

A.J and Julio are really close in the Floor but with Julio being outside the top 15 in Ceilings I would prefer to start A.J. ROS even if Dalton has not been playing great.

Statistical Summary

I made 321 Projections with Probabilities for Week 8.

I measure with 30 % accuracy, meaning if a player scored under his projection but the probability was 30 % or above I failed or if a player had 70 %  probability but scored above his projection I also failed.

Out of the 321 Projections and Probabilities I had 272 Correct and 49 Incorrect. That means that 84.7 % of all the numbers I provided gave you a Great opportunity to plan your fantasy line in Week 8.

Last week I had a 84.6 % hit rate on my Projections so we have had above last year’s average of 76 % four weeks in and have stayed at 84 % two weeks in a row which is really interesting.

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Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!

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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD


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