Hello Fantasy Faithfulls, I hope you did not have as bad fantasy week as me! I only won two out of my five leagues this week and got curb stomped in the three I lost while doing the same in the two I won. This week I will be focusing on the Tight End position with ROS Rankings today, Tight End highlight in Thursday’s Score Projection and Zach Ertz vs. Travis Kelce Head-2-Head on Saturday. Let’s dig in!
The Ceiling is the most amount of points I can expect a player to have on a given week.
The Floor is the least amount of points I expect from a player when he has his worst game.
First thing that needs to be addressed is the difference in Floors between Zach Ertz and Travis Kelce. If you have read a lot of my material you know that I tend to be pretty risk averse and prefer the player with the higher Floor compared to the player with the higher Ceiling so seeing Ertz with a lead that big over the second player on the list is very intriguing. I know these players won’t probably be available in any of your leagues you are playing in but this information if valuable in DFS.
I am very disappointing in seeing Hunter Henry this low. He was ranked extremely high after his rookie season but with an asterisk due to a small sample size. He is experiencing a little bit of a sophomore slump but it also lets us know more what type of player he will be in the future. This will even out is numbers from last year and his rankings on this site will be more in line with what he actually will give you compared to what he can potentially give you.
If you are looking to upgrade on Tight End but have limited options the ones who are available in my leagues are ASF, Austin Hooper, Ben Watson and Martellus Bennett who is back with Brady so I feel much more comfortable with him now than I did before. I recently picked up Austin Hooper in three leagues and he is still only owned in 27.1 % of leagues on NFL.com so I know he is out there, go and get him!
I made 313 Projections with Probabilities for Week 10.
I measure with 30 % accuracy, meaning if a player scored under his projection but the probability was 30 % or above I failed or if a player had 70 % probability but scored above his projection I also failed.
Out of the 313 Projections and Probabilities I had 260 Correct and 53 Incorrect. That means that 83.1 % of all the numbers I provided gave you a great opportunity to plan your fantasy line in Week 10.
Last week I had a 82.7 % hit rate on my Projections so we have had above last year’s average of 76 % 6 weeks in a row.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD