Hello Fantasy Faithfulls, I have a new feature in today’s Score Projection and Risk Analysis I would like to share with you before we dig in. I have been receiving question on why players that are injured show up in the Score Projection and my only response has been that I have not yet figured out a good way to implement it, well that is no longer true! Players that now are Out or on I-R have not received a Projection while Healthy, Questionable and Doubtful have got everything as usual. This should make the Projections easier to look through and increase clarity. Let’s dig in!
Instead of looking at the five highest Projected Tight Ends I decided to look at the top ten instead. A reader last week felt that I was not going deep enough in my highlight portion of the Score Projection so I wanted to show a little bit more this week.
Quick note before we dig into the players. If you look at the full Score Projections in the link below you will see Jordan Reed listed as Questionable.
Gronk’s stats are out of this world! A Tight End should not have a Projection of 10 points with a 91 % Probability of outscoring it. I mean if I change Andy Dalton’s Projection to 10 points his Probability of outscoring it is only 71.2 %. Having a Tight End that is more likely to score more than 10 fantasy points than some Quarterbacks is amazing.
The Gronk discussion can be applied for Kelce as well. He is the highest scoring Tight End right now and is facing one of the worst defenses when it comes to defending Tight Ends this year. This however does not mean that he will score 20 points but it is very likely that he scores more than 9.4.
Zach Ertz rounds out the God Tier of Tight Ends. Austin Hooper had a good game against Dallas last weekend (which was projected here) and even though Ertz missed the last game he is listed as probable so his numbers supports a great game against a mediocre defense, especially without Sean Lee.
The next Tier is Jimmy Graham and Jordan Reed with good Projections and high Probabilities. If Reed plays I expect him to have a good game and Jimmy Graham is steadily moving up the fantasy ladder. If Graham continues his current trend I can see him moving up to a Tier of his own shortly.
Press ctrl+f to search for a player. You can also tweet me @csdfantasy for individual players risk or score projection. Don’t forget that you can sort based on first name, Projection, Probability of outscoring the Projection and Risk of not reaching the Projection.
If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, tweet me @csdfantasy with a picture or list of your team and I will make sure you have it before kickoff on Sunday.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD