Hello Fantasy Faithfulls, we are back on track now! Full posts with better numbers than ever! Today I will be breaking down the best Quarterbacks to enter the playoff with, assuming you made it there or if you play DFS. On Thursday I will be revealing who the best Quarterback is for Week 14 but for now I will stick to the best for Week 14-16 combined.
The Projections are based on how the QB has performed against opponents from the AFC and NFC and where the three come from, how the QB has performed on the Road and at Home and where he plays the last three games, how the QB has performed against Below or Above 0.500 teams and what category the opposition comes from and lastly how many points the opposite teams give up to opposing QBs. If you have any questions about the numbers hit me up on twitter @csdfantasy. Let’s dig in!
Before you judge Drew Brees as my highest ranked Quarterback going into the playoffs hear me out. Brees plays the Falcons twice and they give up on average 16.8 points to Quarterbacks while Brees on average scores 16 points at home and away against NFC teams. That is the base of his projection with a much higher one against the Jets that averages 19.1 points to Quarterbacks. With two games at home vs teams that are not strong against the Quarterback and against a division opponent his schedule in combination with his own play trends gives him a three game average of 16.6 which is the highest of all starting Quarterbacks with 49.9 in total.
Prescott has not been himself lately and have had some health concerns but his numbers still back him as the second highest projected Quarterback heading into the Playoffs and this is him without Ezekiel Elliott for all three games. I know he comes back for the third game but I will update this to reflect Elliott before the third game so no worries. The reason Dak can be this high even with his lack of production lately and the Seahawks in the last game is that the two other oppoenents are just that bad. For instance the Giants give up the second most points to Quarterbacks, after the Jets (Go New York).
With the Jets being the best team for your Quarterback to play it is no wonder Philip Rivers is a guy I would like to highlight here but, instead of doing that I will just suggest that you scroll up and take a look at the Head-2-Head Video where I break down why he is such a good play going forward this season.
As I said above, on Thursday I will reveal who the best Quarterback is for Week 14 and keep doing that for the next three weeks. Next Tuesday I will be looking at the best DSTs to lock play in your playoffs. The reason I am looking at the DSTs is that some of them might still be available in your leagues while skill positions are most likely not.
I made 377 Projections with Probabilities for Week 13.
I measure with 30 % accuracy, meaning if a player scored under his projection but the probability was 30 % or above I failed or if a player had 70 % probability but scored above his projection I also failed.
Out of the 377 Projections and Probabilities I had 323 Correct and 54 Incorrect. That means that 85.7 % of all the numbers I provided gave you a great opportunity to plan your fantasy line in Week 12.
Last week I had a 86.1 % hit rate on my Projections so we have had above last year’s average of 76 % 9 weeks in a row.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD