QB Playoff Numbers & W14 Analysis

Hello Fantasy Faithfulls, I made four out of four possible semi-finals, how did you do? What better way to round this season out than an injury to the MVP front-runner? I can’t believe how many fantasy studs and big time stars we have lost this year, but it won’t bring us down and the fantasy playoffs are still here with or without Wentz. He was going to be my highest ranked QB going into this week, I had to run his numbers but instead we have a couple of other guys looking good and some dropping.

On Thursday I will be taking a look at the DSTs so don’t worry but I got a lot of feedback from the QB focus from last week so I wanted to take that into account and focus on it to start this week too. Let’s dig in!

QB week 15

Jimmy G making the top 15! Yes we made it people, after all the talk and hype we finally got to see him play as the number one guy. I don’t particularly like the 49ers but I am happy that they seemed to have found their guy. I feel the same for every team that does not have a Quarterback they feel good about. You can make the case that every team would like to upgrade to Brady but if you are above the Dalton Scale (Around the NFL’s measurement if you need a QB upgrade, better than Dalton you are fine, below you need a better one. Enough about real football let’s talk fantasy.

Brees tops my list for a second week straight, even though he only finished 13th in Week 14. Playing the Jets with that high-powered offense seems like a good time to prove me right about him.

Roethlisberger has never been a Quarterback I have liked to draft in any format but for Week 15 against the Patriots, if I could I would start him and I would start him bad. Not just cause what we saw in Week 14, cause my numbers don’t have that type of recency bias but because of how New England looks, and the setting, a good AFC team in Pittsburgh, this is set up to be a fantasy dream for Big Ben owners.

I am also loving the crap out of Kirk Cousins for this game. The Redskins are going through a lot of things but playing the Cardinals is an opportune moment for him to put up some big fantasy numbers. I would however start Cam Newton over him even though he has a lower Projection, you have to keep in mind the Probability, and those 5 % is just enough for me to prefer Newton over Cousins.

Bortles has sneakily moved into a high-ranking spot. But look at his Risk, it is way higher than the other Quarterbacks around him. I would still start majority of Quarterbacks before him except, Mariota, Dalton, Carr, Winston and Flacco.

Statistical Summary

I made 411 Projections with Probabilities for Week 14.

I measure with 30 % accuracy, meaning if a player scored under his projection but the probability was 30 % or above I failed or if a player had 70 %  probability but scored above his projection I also failed.

Out of the 411 Projections and Probabilities I had 295 Correct and 116 Incorrect. That means that 71.8 % of all the numbers I provided gave you a great opportunity to plan your fantasy line in Week 14.

Last week I had a 85.7 % hit rate on my Projections so this week broke the 9 week streak of being above last year’s average of 76%

Don’t forget to check out CSD Fantasy’s first partner in STEPUP Apparel. Perfect for your rec-league team, for standing out while you workout or as a fun gift.

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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD

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