Hello Fantasy Faithfulls, congratulations to everyone making their final and sorry to hear that to everyone who did not! My projections did not go as well as I would have hoped last week but the Quarterback Projections from two weeks ago and from last week was very successful except Kirk Cousins, sorry about that one. This week I have new Quarterback numbers for your playoff team or DFS team.
The schedule this week will be a little bit different. There will not be a Top 5 Video this Wednesday instead there will be a Video on Friday or Saturday with a theme that is still no decided. Let’s dig in!
Even without Antonio Brown I have Big Ben as my highest Projected Quarterback for Week 16. This is due to his recent fantasy form and because the Texans are leaking points to Quarterbacks at the moment. Roethlisberger is however not your safest choice and neither is Blake Bortles who is second on my list. The Quarterback I would want this weekend is Russell Wilson!
Wilson has almost the same Projection as Bortles but a 89 % Probability of scoring more than 16.8 points. That is unreal how good that is especially when you compare him to the guys around him. Newton has an incredible Projection with a great Probability but he is still nowhere near Wilson. By the way I knew Newton would be great in this playoff and he killed one of my teams and I will be playing him again in my one of my finals so I am scared.
Nick Foles is sneaking into the middle of my rankings. I made no Projection for him last week cause I never make a Projection without numbers to back it up, but now he has played so he is on the list. I want you to be cautious with him though because his sample size is still way too small to make a fair Projection.
After a few weeks of not being a top fantasy Quarterback Alex Smith was once again a top 12 fantasy QB. He’s playing a weak Miami team while the Chiefs are getting their groove back. I will be playing him over Dak Prescott in a third place game this weekend and expect him to at least let me go out with a win.
Speaking of Dak Prescott, he did not make my top 15 Quarterbacks for this week. If I am a Prescott owner heading into a final (which I am) I would be concerned. Goff only threw for 120 yards and scored 10.8 points against the Seahawks. With Elliott back the Cowboys might elect to run the ball like crazy to make a statement. I will be looking to start someone else in the final if possible.
I made 344 Projections with Probabilities for Week 15.
I measure with 30 % accuracy, meaning if a player scored under his projection but the probability was 30 % or above I failed or if a player had 70 % probability but scored above his projection I also failed.
Out of the 344 Projections and Probabilities I had 247 Correct and 97 Incorrect. That means that 71.8 % of all the numbers I provided gave you a great opportunity to plan your fantasy line in Week 15.
Last week I also had a 71.8 % hit rate on my Projections so this week is unfortunately again below last year’s average. Let’s get it back up again for next week!
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD