Score Projection and Risk Analysis W17: DFS Special

Hello Fantasy Faithfulls, let’s try something new today. I will be focusing on DFS and provide you a line-up for a FanDuel $60 000 salary cap for standard scoring. The team will have my highest Projection and Probability combination while being under budget and getting the best value from each and every position. I know I usually don’t focus too much on DFS so hoping you will enjoy my first DFS exclusive piece. You can of course also find my usual Projection and Risks in the link below. Let’s dig in!


This is a pretty standard team, 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 Flex, 1 Kicker and 1 DST with a salary cap budget of $60 000 and with the players I have chosen have $100 to spare.

I want to talk more about my process than the players themselves cause I feel like it is better to explain how I arrived at the players so you can create your own team with a similar thought process or pick this one and trust that I have done thorough background work.

So first I broke down the players with my usual numbers, Projection, Probability and Risk. I wanted the highest Projected players with the highest Probability so I made some assumptions to make my job easier. First, if two players had the same Projection but one was more than $400 more expansive I would pick the cheaper one. Secondly, if a non-WR  had below than 50% Probability he would not be in my line-up. Thirdly, if a QB had below 60% Probability he was also out. These three rules narrowed my searched, gave me guidelines when faced with money vs. projection issues and made it easier to compare players since cheap players can have a high Projection but 98% Risk.

Analyzing all positions with the goal of getting the best team possible for the budget provided to me. I might have valued safety too much in this line-up which leads to a lack of big scoring ability so that is something to keep in mind if you would like to play this particular team. The teams combined Projection is 89.9 points and the Probability of them scoring more than that is 64.4% which is pretty darn high for an entire team.

Lastly I know that the Rams might chose to rest Gurley so be vary of that. I mostly wanted to showcase that he is the best choice numbers wise. But if we take the real life situation in mind the best option for me is LeSean McCoy, see his Projections in the link below.

For All Week 17 Score Projections and Probabilities Click Here!

Press ctrl+f to search for a player. You can also tweet me @csdfantasy for individual players risk or score projection. Don’t forget that you can sort based on first name, Projection, Probability of outscoring the Projection and Risk of not reaching the Projection.

If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, tweet me @csdfantasy with a picture or list of your team and I will make sure you have it before kickoff on Sunday.

Check out CSD Fantasy’s first partner in STEPUP Apparel. Perfect for your rec-league team, for standing out while you workout or as a fun gift.

stepupShop our designs or create your own!

Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!imageedit_1_9253545623

The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s