DFS & Week 17 Analysis

Hello Fantasy Faithfulls, I am back from Florida, engaged, warmer and happier than ever! I hope y’all had a an amazing new years eve and are ready to get back into football, cause I am ready to roll. I have some great content lined up for today, tomorrow and next week. Today I am showcasing the highest Projected players for each position going into the Wild Card games and tomorrow I am providing all Score Projections for ever player. Let’s dig in!

Tables (1)

Will MVP Cam or trash Cam show up this weekend? According to my numbers the MVP Cam is more likely than trash Cam. A Probability of over 70 % with the highest Projection for the playing Quarterbacks is a great combination. I will be looking to feature Cam in my DFS teams.

Todd Gurley is the biggest no-brainer this weekend. I hate the analysts that hype their correct pre-season predictions and forget the bad ones they did but I will do it here anyway. I said a second round pick for Gurley was a genius move going into this season and look at the situation now, he’s in the freaking MVP discussion.

Julio and the Chiefs are the two Riskiest Projections this weekend. Both of them have high Projections with a lower Probability. Jacksonville of course is more likely to provide you a safe amount of points but the numbers believe that the Chiefs will outscore them. Julio will be a boom or bust, but it is a good weekend for Matt Ryan to get the passer rating while targeting Julio Jones to go above the league average where it currently sits at.

Travis Kelce is the second biggest no-brainer this weekend. He is almost at a Gronk level with his Projection/Probability combination. Gronk has averaged a Projection of 9 points with 80 % Probability so Kelce still has some ways to go, but he is moving closer and is the best Tight End play this weekend.

Starting Josh Lambo would be something I would do even without the numbers. I can see the Jags moving the ball down the field, getting halted and settling for field goals in this game while the Bills have a hard time scoring so the field goal is a safe thing to go for every time.

Statistical Summary

I made 282 Projections with Probabilities for Week 17.

I measure with 30 % accuracy, meaning if a player scored under his projection but the probability was 30 % or above I failed or if a player had 70 %  probability but scored above his projection I also failed.

Out of the 282 Projections and Probabilities I had 203 Correct and 79 Incorrect. That means that 72 % of all the numbers I provided gave you a great opportunity to plan your fantasy line-up in Week 17.

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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD


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