Quarterback Correlation Analysis

Hello Fantasy Faithfulls, I guess congratulations are in order. I still have a hard time believing that Nick Foles beat Tom Brady in a Super Bowl, it is so much more perplexing than Case Keenum leading the Vikings to an NFC championship game. But enough about “real” football and let’s kick off this Fantasy Football off-season with some well-needed content. Today I am dissecting how the Top 30 Quarterbacks got their points and what stats mattered the most to them going through the season.

I have measured everything today with a Correlation Test, which measures if two samples move in the same direction. Answers vary from +1 Perfect Positive Correlation to -1 Perfect Negative Correlation. If the answer is +1 it means that when one sample gains 1 so does the other and vice versa. As an example, when the entire stock market goes up 1 % your company’s value goes up 1 % and when the market goes down 1 % so does your company. Let’s dig in!

chart       chart (2)

First of I compared Completions vs. Attempts in connection with Fantasy Points. I wanted to know which was more important from a Fantasy standpoint. Should I be looking for a Quarterback that has a lot of completions or for one that just throws a lot and that leads to Fantasy Points eventually? The answer is that they are extremely close which is in itself not a huge surprise but it is a good starting point going further into this article.

1Their Correlations are so close that deciding which Quarterback you should lean towards based on these stats are pointless. So let’s move on.

chart (1)       chart (3)

Secondly, I went for a percentage focus with Completions vs. Touchdowns. These are again very close with as you can see below 0.346 and 0.403. It is not a huge advantage to the Quarterback that throws more touchdowns compared to the more accurate one, but there is a difference. For you to know this stat could be extremely valuable going into your draft, especially in deeper leagues or 2QB leagues where there is a larger demand for them.  The Quarterback with the best Touchdown % last year was Deshaun Watson, something to keep in mind for next year.2

chart (5)      chart (4)

Before I showcase the last three that is less of a comparison I looked at Touchdowns thrown vs. Yards thrown. I wanted to keep the stats fairly similar but that led me to results that are very close to each other. That is no problem at all because comparing two stats was an easy way for me to structure the article but you can, of course, take any two stats that you want and compare them. For instance, I rather have a Quarterback that throws a ton even if his completion percentage is low. But to get back to these two stats, I would rather draft a Quarterback that throws a lot of Touchdowns compared to one that throws for a lot of Yards. The best showing is this is Rivers vs. Wilson. Rivers threw for 4515 Yards and 28 Touchdowns for 270 Fantasy Points while Wilson threw for 3983 Yards and 34 Touchdowns for 344 Fantasy Points. Get the touchdown machine and worry about yards later even though the stats are so close it is enough to give a slight edge in the long run.3.png

As a bonus, I leave you with the Correlation between Fantasy Points and QB Rating, Yards Per Attempt, and Age. Older Quarterback does equal more Fantasy Points, but not much at all.

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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD


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